Miżien

CC-114 · Climate & Energy · Emissions & targets

PN: only EU state with rising emissions intensity

Misleading Moderate confidence Draft: right of reply pending

Parts of this claim

The claim is split into parts that are tested separately, as in the report below. Each part has its own number.

  1. CC-114A Malta is the only EU Member State whose greenhouse gas emissions intensity rose since 2013Eurostat’s news item and map say so [3, 4]; still true in the August 2026 data, but only with 2024, a Eurostat estimate, as end year (to 2023: −8.3%, no riser) [6].Accurate
  2. CC-114B Malta +17%, EU average −34%Matches the January release (+16.6%, −34.0%); revised to +14.3% (EU values flagged i). “Increased these emissions” is the slip rated in C, but here the same sentence gives the EU’s “average intensity”, so we read the figures as intensity. The −34% is the EU aggregate (countries’ mean −32.4%) [3, 4, 6].Accurate
  3. CC-114C Estonia reduced emissions by 64%, Ireland by 50%, Finland by 44%These are intensity changes, given as emissions and “the fight against air pollution”. Amber because of Ireland, whose emissions rose while its intensity fell, not because of the emissions-for-intensity label as such: the same label in the Malta sentence was excused (B), as that sentence gives the EU’s “average intensity”. Emissions 2013–2024, residence accounts / territorial inventory: Estonia −55% / −53% and Finland −38% / −38% (both 2024 flagged i), Ireland +13.7% / −6.9% (2024 flagged e; 87% of its rise on the residence basis is air transport) [5, 6, 9].Mislabelled
  4. CC-114D For every euro put into the economy, Malta pollutes more than in 2013True on the residence basis, which the release never names: 72% of Malta’s 2024 figure is air-transport fuel bought abroad; without it the indicator fell from every base year (−64% since 2013); territorial inventory per € of GDP −61% since 2013 [6, 9].Needs context
  5. CC-114E The rise is the direct result of a lack of ambition on several frontsA political judgement about the Government’s ambition, not a checkable statement of fact [1].Not rated
  6. CC-114F Renewables as a cause of the rise: “among them, the clear lack of ambition to seriously increase the use of renewable energy”Rates the release’s “direct result” causal link as applied to renewables; the “lack of ambition” judgement (E) is not rated. Air transport accounts for the whole increase and electricity-sector emissions fell about 56%; with zero electricity-sector emissions in 2024 the indicator would still be 1.4% above 2013, so more renewable electricity, on its own, could not have removed the rise (the bound tests electricity only); renewable shares rose (electricity 1.6% to 10.7%) [6, 10].Contradicted
  7. CC-114G 10.7% renewables in 2024 against an EU average of just over 25%, third from last10.7% is Malta’s electricity share (lowest in the EU; EU 47.5%); 25.2% is the EU’s overall share. Malta’s overall share is 17.2%, fourth from last [10]. Eurostat’s release of 18 December 2025 named Belgium, Luxembourg and Ireland (14.3–16.1%) as the lowest three, so Malta was not third from last in the data published before the PN’s release [16].Mixed measures

Claim Check 114 · Emissions intensity

Rising intensity, and what drives it

Testing the PN’s reading of Eurostat’s greenhouse gas intensity figures for Malta, 2013–2024

“Malta is the only EU Member State which, instead of reducing, increased the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions from 2013 to date.”

Partit Nazzjonalista press release, signed by Eve Borg Bonello, 26 Jan 2026 (our translation).
It cites Eurostat (Malta +17%, EU −34%) and blames a lack of ambition on “several fronts”, among them, renewables.

Verdict: Misleading Eurostat’s figure is right; since 2013 the rise is airline fuel (2024 estimate)

Version 1.1 · 6 October 2026

TL;DR

On 26 January 2026 a Nationalist Party (PN) release signed by Eve Borg Bonello said that “Malta is the only EU Member State which, instead of reducing, increased the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions from 2013 to date” (+17%, EU −34%), that Malta now pollutes more for every euro of its economy, and that this is “the direct result” of a lack of ambition on several fronts, among them, renewables [1] (our translation).

  1. The headline figure is Eurostat’s, quoted correctly. Eurostat: “Only Malta (+17%) saw its emissions intensity increase since 2013”, EU −34% [3, 4]. Revised data: +14.3%, still the only rise, last of 27 from every base year [6].
  2. 72% of Malta’s 2024 figure is airline fuel bought abroad (2024 estimate). The indicator counts Malta-resident firms’ emissions wherever they occur [7]. Air transport rose from 0.30 to 4.73 Mt CO₂e, 2013–2024 (2024: Eurostat estimate, flag i), all of it fuel bought abroad: 116% of the net rise in resident-unit emissions (+3.81 Mt), not of the indicator. Air transport alone: about 36 g/EUR in 2013, 266 in 2024 (estimate) [6, 8].
  3. Without air transport, the indicator fell from every base year. −8.5% to −72% for bases 2008–2023: −64% since 2013 (EU’s second largest fall), −29.5% since 2016 (17th of 27), as power-sector emissions fell mostly in 2014–2016 [6].
  4. More renewable electricity, on its own, could not have removed the rise. Air transport accounts for the whole increase; electricity emissions fell about 56%. With none at all in 2024 (the bound tests electricity only) the indicator would still be 1.4% above 2013 [6, 10]. “Lack of ambition” (E) is not rated.
  5. Verdict: misleading (moderate confidence). The statistic is right, but the release never names the airline-fuel basis and links the rise to renewables, which alone could not have removed it. Moderate, not high: D and F rest on the same Eurostat accounts, including the imputed (flag i) 2024 air-transport value. Pending right of reply.
  1. Supported
  2. Largely supported
  3. Not substantiated
  4. Misleading
  5. Contradicted
+14%Eurostat’s indicator for Malta, 2013–2024 (+17% in January; EU −34%)
72%of Malta’s 2024 figure is airline fuel bought abroad (2024 estimate; 11% in 2013)
116%of the rise in emissions (+3.81 Mt, not the indicator) is air transport (2024 est.)
−64%without air transport since 2013; a fall from every base year 2008–2023

What would move the verdict up

Revised data or a source showing that the rise comes from activities in Malta that renewable energy could reduce (for example emissions reallocated to electricity): Largely supported.

What would move it down

Reported 2024 data replacing Eurostat’s estimate and showing no rise since 2013 (to 2023 the indicator fell 8.3%): the headline itself would then be wrong, Contradicted.

IN THIS REPORT

1 The claim and what we could verify

The statement is a PN press release in Maltese, published on the party’s website on 26 January 2026 and signed by Eve Borg Bonello as Shadow Minister for Climate Change and Public Cleanliness [1]. Newsbook reported it in English the same day, quoting some sentences and giving the figures in its own words [2]. We rate the release. Quotations are our translation, checked against Newsbook’s English where it has one; the Maltese is in literature/CC-114/primary-source.md.

What was said (our translation)WhereOur access
“Malta is the only EU Member State which, instead of reducing, increased the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions from 2013 to date. Malta in fact increased these emissions by 17%, when the average intensity of these emissions in all EU Member States fell by 34%.”Release [1]; Newsbook quotes the first sentence and paraphrases the figures [2]Read in full
Eurostat’s figures, “published in recent days”, show other countries succeeding “in the fight against air pollution”, among them “Estonia, which reduced emissions by 64%, Ireland by 50% and Finland by 44%”.Release [1]Read in full
“In simple words, it is not simply that we are polluting more because the economy grew, but today, for every euro we put into our economy, we are polluting more than we were polluting in 2013.”Release [1]; quoted in English by Newsbook [2]Read in full
“This is the direct result of a lack of ambition on the part of the Maltese Government on several fronts. Among them, the clear lack of ambition to seriously increase the use of renewable energy.” A later paragraph cites “the long hours stuck in traffic” as a problem on which the Government drags its feet.Release [1]; its subtitle names renewablesRead in full
“In 2024 our country generated only 10.7% of its energy from renewable sources … the European average is a little over 25% … third from last.”Release [1]Read in full
The release’s image: Eurostat’s map of the change in emissions intensity of gross value added, 2013–2024 (Malta 16.6).Release [1]; Eurostat [3, 4]Read in full

FAIRNESS NOTE

The PN reproduced Eurostat’s headline and definition accurately, and Eurostat’s own news item gives no explanation of Malta’s figure either [3]. This is an opposition statement, held to the same standard and data as the Government’s statement on the same theme (Claim Check 025) [13]; we test our own counter-figures from every base year, as we test the PN’s. Newsbook’s own additions (for example Malta’s lead in emissions per unit of GDP since 2005) are not the PN’s and are not rated.

2 Method

Questions. (i) Does Eurostat show Malta as the only EU Member State whose emissions intensity rose since 2013, by 17% against −34%? (ii) Does that hold in the latest data and for other start and end years? (iii) What drives Malta’s figure? (iv) Do other measures of emissions per unit of output agree, and from which base years? (v) Can the cause the release gives account for the rise? (vi) Are the release’s other figures right?

Evidence. Eurostat’s news item, map and Statistics Explained article [3–5]; its air emissions accounts (intensities, emissions by activity, bridging to the national inventory) [6]; Eurostat’s and the National Statistics Office’s (NSO) metadata [7, 8]; the territorial inventory, GDP, value added and population [9]; renewable shares [10, 16]; and two peer-reviewed papers [11, 12]. All data were retrieved on 6 October 2026 into data/cc-114/ with Eurostat’s status flags; every figure is recomputed by tools/cc-114-report/calc.py (data/cc-114/checks.csv).

Grades. Eurostat’s and the NSO’s statistics and metadata are official statistics, grade C; the two papers, read as abstracts, are a methodological analysis and a systematic review, grade C. The release and the news report are the claim, not evidence. Verdicts follow the scale in Appendix A.

3 What Eurostat’s indicator counts

Eurostat’s greenhouse gas emissions intensity is the emissions of an economy’s production units, in CO₂ equivalents, per euro of gross value added in chain-linked 2020 prices; households are left out because they produce no value added [5]. The emissions come from the air emissions accounts, which follow the national accounts and so the residence principle: they record “emissions arising from the activities of all resident units … regardless of where these emissions actually occur geographically” [7]. The inventory reported to the UN climate convention instead counts what is emitted on the territory (“territory principle”, in the label of Eurostat’s bridging table [6]) and keeps international aviation and shipping as memo items [9]. A peer-reviewed comparison finds the gap between the two principles “high for many countries” and growing [11].

An airline resident in Malta is counted in Malta’s accounts for the fuel it burns on any route [7], and its value added is part of Malta’s GDP (general national-accounts context): the indicator is consistent, but it does not measure emissions in Malta. Eurostat’s article notes that in Denmark, Luxembourg and Malta transport is the key emitting activity in these accounts, as transport companies’ emissions “are allocated to the country of residence” [5].

Malta’s air transport. Eurostat’s bridging table classes as fuel bought abroad 299 of the 304 kt of Malta’s air-transport emissions in 2013 and all 4.73 Mt in 2024 (an estimate), with 0.91 Mt in 2019, 1.59 Mt in 2022 and 3.11 Mt in 2023 [6]: from 0.4% to 4.4% of all such emissions by EU residents, for an economy with 0.13% of the EU’s value added. The NSO attributes the 2023 jump to “an increase in international aviation activity, primarily due to the activity of airlines which started operating during 2023”; its source is the OECD’s residence-based aviation data, with charter flights for 2013–2018 estimated by the NSO and revised in February 2026 [8]. Neither names the airlines, and we do not.

What 2024 is. Eurostat estimates the latest year itself [7]: Malta’s 2024 values, and the EU-27’s, carry the flag “i”, imputed. Eurostat also warns that “a multitude of factors may drive greenhouse gas emissions intensity, with improving environmental performance and decarbonisation policies being only one of them” [5]. A falling intensity alongside growth is what the literature calls relative decoupling [12].

4 What the data show

The same economy gives opposite signs depending on what is counted, from when and at which prices. This table starts in 2013, the PN’s base year; the next one tests other base years, for our figures as for the PN’s.

MeasureCountsPeriodMaltaEU-27Rank, 1 = largest fall
Eurostat’s indicator, January releaseResidents / GVA2013–24+16.6%−34.0%27th, only rise
Same, data of August 2026Residents / GVA2013–24+14.3% (est.)−34.0%27th, only rise
Same, ending 2023Residents / GVA2013–23−8.3%−32.4%no rise
Same, current pricesResidents / GVA2013–24−20.3%−49.3%no rise
Same, without air transportResidents / GVA2013–24−64.0%−35.2%2nd of 27
Territorial inventory per € of GDPTerritory / GDP2013–24−61.3%−35.5%2nd of 27
Same, from 2005, volumes / current prices (CC-025’s “80%”)Territory / GDP2005–24−72.2% / −83.8%−47.9% / −64.7%
Territorial inventory per personTerritory / person2013–24−42.6%−24.2%3rd of 27
Residents incl. households, per personResidents / person2013–24+69.2%−21.2%27th, 5 rises

Sources [4, 6, 9, 13]; values in data/cc-114/checks.csv, ranks in ranking_2013_2024.csv. “Without air transport” removes its emissions only; removing transport from both sides gives −66.3%.

Every measure by base year, to 2024

Base yearEurostat’s indicatorWithout air transportTerritorial per € of GDPElectricity-sector emissions
2008−9.0% (27th)−72.3% (1st)−69.3% (1st)−63%
2010−0.2% (27th)−69.4% (2nd)−67.0% (1st)−61%
2012−3.1% (27th)−70.4% (1st)−67.2% (1st)−64%
2013+14.3% (27th)−64.0% (2nd)−61.3% (2nd)−56%
2014+19.5% (27th)−62.1% (2nd)−58.5% (2nd)−55%
2015+64.9% (27th)−42.6% (5th)−39.6% (5th)−16%
2016+89.4% (27th)−29.5% (17th)−27.1% (21st)+28%
2019+84.6% (27th)−21.8% (15th)−20.2% (16th)+0%
2023+24.7% (27th)−8.5% (3rd)−6.6% (5th)−7%

Malta’s change to 2024 and its rank of 27 (1st = largest fall; 27th = weakest). EU-27 from 2013: −34.0%, −35.2%, −35.5%; from 2016: −29.0%, −30.1%, −29.8%. All bases 2008–2023 in sensitivity_base_years.csv [6, 9].

Reading across the data

  • Both parties’ figures are real; they count different things. The Government’s COP30 statement (Claim Check 025) gave no basis; its “more than 80%” per unit of GDP since 2005 holds on the territorial inventory only at current prices (−72% in volumes) [13]. The PN used Eurostat’s residence-based indicator.
  • One activity explains the whole rise. Malta’s resident production units went from 2.78 to 6.59 Mt CO₂e while real value added rose 108.5%: air transport from 0.30 to 4.73 Mt (2024 estimate), electricity, gas and steam from 1.70 to 0.74 Mt, other transport from 0.18 to 0.26 Mt, and all other activities from 0.59 to 0.86 Mt [6]. Air transport added 4.43 Mt, 116% of the net increase in these emissions (+3.81 Mt; a share of the rise in emissions, not of the intensity indicator); the rest fell, taken together. In intensity terms, air transport alone went from about 36 g/EUR of total value added in 2013 to about 266 g/EUR in 2024 (estimate), against an indicator of 325 and 372 g/EUR.
  • Our counter-figures depend on the base year too. Most of the fall without air transport, and of the territorial fall, came in 2014–2016, when electricity-sector emissions fell from 1.70 to 0.58 Mt; since 2016 they have risen 28%. From 2016, Malta’s fall without air transport (−29.5%, 17th) and on the territorial inventory (−27.1%, 21st) is close to the EU’s. What holds from every base year is the direction: both fell, from every year from 2008 to 2023.
  • The PN’s base year is not a convenient one. Ending 2024, Malta’s rise from any base year 2014–2019 is larger, +19.5% to +97%, and Malta is last of the 27 from every base year from 2008, though it fell (by up to 9%) from bases 2008–2012.
  • “Only Malta” rests on the 2024 estimate. With 2013 as the base, Malta is the only riser for the end year 2024 and for no other; to 2023, the last year Malta reported, it fell 8.3% and no Member State rose.
  • The rise is recent. The indicator fell 40% from 2013 to 2016 and was still 39% below 2013 in 2021. It rose 63% from 2022 to 2024: the NSO links the 2023 jump to airlines that started operating that year [8]; the 2024 value is Eurostat’s estimate.
  • The January and August figures differ only for Malta: +16.6% to +14.3%; no other country moved by more than 0.7 points. The NSO revised 2013–2018 air transport in February 2026 [8].
Figure 1. Change in emissions per euro of output, 2013–2024, for the 27 Member States, on Eurostat’s published indicator (filled; resident production units per euro of gross value added) and on the territorial inventory per euro of GDP (hollow; excluding land use and international bunkers), both in
Figure 1. Change in emissions per euro of output, 2013–2024, for the 27 Member States, on Eurostat’s published indicator (filled; resident production units per euro of gross value added) and on the territorial inventory per euro of GDP (hollow; excluding land use and international bunkers), both in chain-linked volumes [6, 9]. Sorted by Eurostat’s indicator. 2024 values in the accounts are Eurostat estimates; ranks depend on the base year (see the base-year table).
Figure 2. Malta. Panel A: emissions of resident production units by activity, with the territorial inventory for comparison (Mt CO₂e). Panel B: Eurostat’s indicator, the same without air-transport emissions, and the territorial inventory per euro of GDP, all indexed to 2013 = 100. 2024 is a Eurostat
Figure 2. Malta. Panel A: emissions of resident production units by activity, with the territorial inventory for comparison (Mt CO₂e). Panel B: Eurostat’s indicator, the same without air-transport emissions, and the territorial inventory per euro of GDP, all indexed to 2013 = 100. 2024 is a Eurostat estimate (hatched, shaded) [6, 9].

5 Where the evidence points different ways

Q1 Is Malta the only Member State whose intensity rose since 2013?

YES, ON EUROSTAT’S INDICATOR

EVIDENCE FOR THE CLAIM'S IMPRESSION

Eurostat’s news item and map say so: +16.6%, the only rise, EU −34.0% [3, 4]. The revised data of August 2026 give +14.3%, still the only rise, and Malta ranks last from every base year [6].

EVIDENCE AGAINST

Only with 2024 as the end year, and Malta’s 2024 value is a Eurostat estimate. To 2023 the indicator fell 8.3% and no Member State rose [6].

WHY THEY DIFFER, AND WHAT IT MEANS HERE

For this claim: accurate as Eurostat’s published statistic; the release rightly says it is Eurostat’s.

Q2 Does Malta now pollute more per euro than in 2013?

ONLY BY COUNTING AIRLINES ABROAD

EVIDENCE FOR THE CLAIM'S IMPRESSION

Malta-resident firms emit 14% more per euro of value added than in 2013 [6]. Their value added is in Malta’s GDP, so counting their emissions is consistent, as Eurostat’s accounts intend [5, 7].

EVIDENCE AGAINST

72% of the 2024 figure is fuel bought abroad by resident air transport firms. Without air transport the indicator fell from every base year (−64% since 2013, −29.5% since 2016) [6].

WHY THEY DIFFER, AND WHAT IT MEANS HERE

For this claim: true of resident firms as the accounts count them. The release never names that basis, and its renewables explanation treats the figure as domestic.

Q3 Could more renewable electricity, on its own, have removed the rise?

CONTRADICTED

EVIDENCE FOR THE CLAIM'S IMPRESSION

Malta’s renewable shares are among the EU’s lowest: 10.7% of electricity in 2024, the lowest of the 27, and 17.2% of all energy, fourth from last [10].

EVIDENCE AGAINST

Air transport accounts for the whole increase in resident-unit emissions (116% of +3.81 Mt), while electricity-sector emissions fell about 56% (1.70 to 0.74 Mt). Even with no electricity-sector emissions at all in 2024, the indicator would still be 1.4% above 2013 (329.8 against 325.2 g/EUR): zeroing electricity alone leaves 2024 above 2013. Renewable shares rose over the period: electricity 1.6% to 10.7%, overall 3.8% to 17.2% [6, 10].

WHY THEY DIFFER, AND WHAT IT MEANS HERE

For this claim: more renewable electricity, on its own, could not have removed the rise. The bound tests electricity-sector emissions only. This rates the release’s “direct result” link as applied to renewables; “a lack of ambition on several fronts” (E) is a political judgement we do not rate. The release also cites “the long hours stuck in traffic”, without tying it to the figure; households’ own car use is outside the indicator [5].

6 Testing the claim

Sub-claimWhat the evidence showsRating
A. Malta is the only EU Member State whose greenhouse gas emissions intensity rose since 2013Eurostat’s news item and map say so [3, 4]; still true in the August 2026 data, but only with 2024, a Eurostat estimate, as end year (to 2023: −8.3%, no riser) [6].ACCURATE
B. Malta +17%, EU average −34%Matches the January release (+16.6%, −34.0%); revised to +14.3% (EU values flagged i). “Increased these emissions” is the slip rated in C, but here the same sentence gives the EU’s “average intensity”, so we read the figures as intensity. The −34% is the EU aggregate (countries’ mean −32.4%) [3, 4, 6].ACCURATE
C. Estonia reduced emissions by 64%, Ireland by 50%, Finland by 44%These are intensity changes, given as emissions and “the fight against air pollution”. Amber because of Ireland, whose emissions rose while its intensity fell, not because of the emissions-for-intensity label as such: the same label in the Malta sentence was excused (B), as that sentence gives the EU’s “average intensity”. Emissions 2013–2024, residence accounts / territorial inventory: Estonia −55% / −53% and Finland −38% / −38% (both 2024 flagged i), Ireland +13.7% / −6.9% (2024 flagged e; 87% of its rise on the residence basis is air transport) [5, 6, 9].MISLABELLED
D. For every euro put into the economy, Malta pollutes more than in 2013True on the residence basis, which the release never names: 72% of Malta’s 2024 figure is air-transport fuel bought abroad; without it the indicator fell from every base year (−64% since 2013); territorial inventory per € of GDP −61% since 2013 [6, 9].NEEDS CONTEXT
E. The rise is the direct result of a lack of ambition on several frontsA political judgement about the Government’s ambition, not a checkable statement of fact [1].NOT RATED
F. Renewables as a cause of the rise: “among them, the clear lack of ambition to seriously increase the use of renewable energy”Rates the release’s “direct result” causal link as applied to renewables; the “lack of ambition” judgement (E) is not rated. Air transport accounts for the whole increase and electricity-sector emissions fell about 56%; with zero electricity-sector emissions in 2024 the indicator would still be 1.4% above 2013, so more renewable electricity, on its own, could not have removed the rise (the bound tests electricity only); renewable shares rose (electricity 1.6% to 10.7%) [6, 10].CONTRADICTED
G. 10.7% renewables in 2024 against an EU average of just over 25%, third from last10.7% is Malta’s electricity share (lowest in the EU; EU 47.5%); 25.2% is the EU’s overall share. Malta’s overall share is 17.2%, fourth from last [10]. Eurostat’s release of 18 December 2025 named Belgium, Luxembourg and Ireland (14.3–16.1%) as the lowest three, so Malta was not third from last in the data published before the PN’s release [16].MIXED MEASURES

7 Verdict and requests for evidence

VerdictMisleading

Eurostat’s figure is quoted correctly, but the release never says it counts airline fuel bought abroad, and links the rise to renewables, which on their own could not have removed it. Confidence: moderate.

Why. (1) The central statistic is Eurostat’s, quoted correctly: Malta is the only Member State whose indicator rose from 2013 to 2024. (2) The release reads it as Malta polluting more for every euro of its economy, “the direct result” of a lack of ambition on several fronts, among them, renewables. (3) Eurostat’s own tables, which the release does not mention, show that air transport is 116% of the net rise, all of the rise being fuel bought abroad by air transport firms resident in Malta; that without it the indicator fell from every base year from 2008 to 2023; and that even with no electricity-sector emissions in 2024 it would still be above 2013, so more renewable electricity, on its own, could not have removed the rise. These omitted facts change what the figure means: the individual figures are defensible but the overall impression is inaccurate, the scale’s definition of Misleading. The verdict rests on the omission (sub-claim D) together with the contradicted renewables link (F); the evidence shown is listed in the claim record.

Why not Contradicted or Largely supported. The headline statistic is true, so the claim is not contradicted. The omission is not a minor caveat: it changes what the figure means and undercuts the cause drawn from it. Why moderate, not high, confidence. The decomposition and the bound are arithmetic on Eurostat’s own tables, and the OECD-based aviation series in the accounts [8] and the separately compiled territorial inventory [9] point the same way for the per-euro fall. But the deciding sub-claims D and F both rest on the same Eurostat air emissions accounts, including the imputed (flag i) 2024 air-transport value, so they are not independent checks of each other; confidence was lowered from high to moderate in version 1.1 for that reason. Our own counter-figures also depend on the base year, so the verdict rests on their direction, not on Malta’s ranking.

Consistency with other checks. Claim Check 026 rated a news report of a figure from the same accounts Largely supported because its body explained the difference between the residence and territorial measures; its headline read alone was rated “Needs context” (amber, 026D) [15]. This release never names the basis, so sub-claim D gets the same amber rating, and the overall Misleading rests on that omission together with the contradicted renewables link (F). Claim Check 025 rated the Government’s “more than 80%” per unit of GDP “True only at current prices” (amber, within a Largely supported statement): it gave no basis, and the figure holds on the territorial inventory at current prices, not in volumes (−72%) [13]. Claim Check 003 rated a per-person figure Misleading for leaving out a projection that changed the picture [14]. “Selective metric” tags a metric favourable to the speaker’s argument (not to Malta or to any party) cited while the inventory reported to the UN climate convention points the other way. On the residence basis the PN used, emissions per person (households included) rose 69.2% from 2013 to 2024, 27th of 27, against −21.2% for the EU-27 [6, 9]. The verdicts differ because this release adds a causal link the data contradict; the statement rated in Claim Check 025 also names no basis, but its figures hold on the territorial inventory and it draws no causal inference.

What this verdict does not say. It does not say Malta’s renewable shares are adequate (its electricity share is the EU’s lowest), that aviation emissions do not matter, or that anyone acted in bad faith. A statement the data support would read: “On Eurostat’s residence-based measure Malta’s emissions intensity rose 17% since 2013 (14% in revised data), the only rise in the EU, because emissions of airlines resident in Malta, from fuel bought abroad, rose more than fifteen-fold; without them, and on the territorial inventory, Malta’s emissions per euro fell.”

Evidence we are asking for

  • From the PN: whether the release took account of Eurostat’s breakdown by activity and its bridging table, and which other “fronts” it had in mind besides renewable energy.
  • From the PN: the source of the 10.7% and of “third from last” (Eurostat gives 10.7% for electricity; Malta is fourth from last overall).
  • From the NSO: which resident airline operations drive the air-transport series from 2019, and how fuel bought abroad is estimated from the OECD data.
  • From the NSO and Eurostat: when Malta’s reported 2024 accounts will replace Eurostat’s estimate.

RIGHT OF REPLY

A right of reply will be sought from the Nationalist Party before this check is circulated beyond Miżien’s site, with a fixed deadline (suggested 14 days). Its response will be appended and the verdict revisited.

8 Limitations

  • Malta’s 2024 values in the air emissions accounts are Eurostat estimates (flag i; Malta reported to 2023), and the rise since 2013 depends on them. Our counter-figures hold in direction from every base year, but their size and rank do not: from 2016 they are close to the EU’s (section 4).
  • Malta’s air-transport series comes from the OECD’s residence-based aviation data with NSO additions for charter flights before 2019 [8]; a change of source between years could affect comparisons with 2013.
  • We did not identify the airlines or read company filings. The value added of air transport is not published for 2013 and is negative in volumes for 2022–2024, so “without air transport” removes emissions only (removing all transport from both sides: −66.3%).
  • The translation of the Maltese release is ours. The page was modified on 24 April 2026 (its image is filed under that month); we found no January copy, but Newsbook’s quotes of 26 January match the text.
  • The two papers were read as abstracts; MaltaToday’s report was not readable and not used.

References

  1. [1] Partit Nazzjonalista (26 January 2026, modified 24 April 2026). Malta l-uniku Stat Membru tal-UE li żied l-intensità tal-emissjonijiet tiegħu mill-2013 ’l hawn. Press release signed by Eve Borg Bonello, Shadow Minister for Climate Change and Public Cleanliness (Maltese). https://pn.org.mt/press-releases/malta-l-uniku-stat-membru-tal-ue-li-zied-l-intenstita-tal-emissjonijiet-tieghu-mill-2013-l-hawn/
  2. [2] Balzan J. (26 January 2026). PN accuses government of climate ‘apathy’ as emissions intensity rises. Newsbook. https://newsbook.com.mt/en/pn-accuses-government-of-climate-apathy-as-emissions-intensity-rises/
  3. [3] Eurostat (23 January 2026). 2024 EU greenhouse gas emissions: -20% since 2013. News item. Its being the release’s source is our identification (dates, figures, map and definition match). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20260123-1
  4. [4] Eurostat (January 2026). Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of gross value added, 2013–2024 (map in [3]; data block dated 20 January 2026, transcribed by script to data/cc-114/eurostat_map_jan2026.csv). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4187653/22762673/greenhouse-gas-emissions-intensity-2013-2024.html/98651795-bcd1-3b5a-b273-7da9727ee5f3
  5. [5] Eurostat (June 2026). Greenhouse gas emission accounts. Statistics Explained (data extracted June 2026). Open access, CC BY 4.0; copy in literature/CC-114/open-access/. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Greenhouse_gas_emission_accounts
  6. [6] Eurostat. Air emissions accounts: intensities (env_ac_aeint_r2), emissions by NACE activity (env_ac_ainah_r2) and bridging to inventory totals (env_ac_aibrid_r2); updated 7 August 2026, retrieved 6 October 2026. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/env_ac_aeint_r2/default/table
  7. [7] Eurostat. Air emissions accounts by NACE Rev. 2 activity: reference metadata (ESMS). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/env_ac_ainah_r2_sims.htm
  8. [8] National Statistics Office, Malta (11 February 2026). Air emissions accounts: national reference metadata, sections 17.2, 18.3 and 18.5.2. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/env_ac_ainah_r2_simsae_mt.htm
  9. [9] Eurostat. Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector (env_air_gge, updated 2 June 2026); GDP (nama_10_gdp) and gross value added by activity (nama_10_a64), updated 6 October 2026; population (nama_10_pe). Retrieved 6 October 2026. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/env_air_gge/default/table
  10. [10] Eurostat. Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), overall and electricity; updated 15 September 2026, retrieved 6 October 2026. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_ind_ren/default/table
  11. [11] Usubiaga A., Acosta-Fernández J. (2015). Carbon emission accounting in MRIO models: the territory vs. the residence principle. Economic Systems Research 27(4):458–477. doi:10.1080/09535314.2015.1049126. Abstract read. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2015.1049126
  12. [12] Haberl H. et al. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters 15:065003. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a. Abstract read. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
  13. [13] Miżien. Claim Check 025: per-capita and per-GDP emissions (COP30 statement), v1.1. https://github.com/leandergrech/Mizien/tree/main/claims/CC-025
  14. [14] Miżien. Claim Check 003: per-capita emissions vs the 2030 projection, v1.2. https://github.com/leandergrech/Mizien/tree/main/claims/CC-003
  15. [15] Miżien. Claim Check 026: the EU’s largest rise in emissions, v1.1 (same accounts; air transport 444 to 4,730 kt CO₂e, 2015–2024). https://github.com/leandergrech/Mizien/tree/main/claims/CC-026
  16. [16] Eurostat (18 December 2025). 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables. News item (lowest: Belgium 14.3%, Luxembourg 14.7%, Ireland 16.1%). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20251218-2
  17. [17] Miżien. Data and calculations: data/cc-114/; tools/cc-114-report/fetch.py and calc.py.

Appendix A: series standards and verdict scale

Every investigation in this series follows the same rules so that verdicts are comparable and challengeable.

VerdictMeaning
SUPPORTEDEvidence consistently backs the claim as stated.
LARGELY SUPPORTEDBacked by the evidence, with minor caveats that do not change the substance.
NOT SUBSTANTIATEDStated more strongly than the evidence offered or available allows. May be true in some conditions but has not been shown.
MISLEADINGOmits material facts so that the overall impression is inaccurate, even if individual statements are defensible.
CONTRADICTEDThe available evidence points against the claim.

Confidence

High: multiple independent lines of evidence agree. Moderate: evidence is relevant but incomplete or indirect. Low: evidence is thin, second-hand or conflicting.

Evidence grades

A experiment · B observational study with a control or gradient · C review, guidance or official statistics · D assertion or anecdote. ◆ marks a source known only second-hand.

Standards

  • Quote the speaker, not the headline, with outlet and date, and link the original where possible.
  • Separate the claim from the evidence offered for it, and say who made which statement.
  • Grade the evidence and show differing views side by side where the evidence is unsettled.
  • State what we could not access or verify, and what would change the verdict either way.
  • Ask for the missing evidence in specific, answerable requests.
  • Offer a right of reply where a check finds a claim Not substantiated, Misleading or Contradicted (or a pledge Not measurable, Off track or Missed), before wider circulation, and append responses.
  • Correct errors openly with a version number and change log.
  • Whistle-blow only on evidence: a verdict of Misleading or Contradicted requires documents or data that can be shown, not inference.
  • Check every side. Government, opposition, NGOs and developers are held to the same standard.

Appendix B: revision log

VersionDateChange
1.06 Oct 2026First issue. Pending right of reply (Nationalist Party).
1.16 Oct 2026Corrections after the audit of 6 Oct 2026. Sub-claim F and the bound narrowed to “more renewable electricity, on its own, could not have removed the rise” (the bound tests electricity-sector emissions only; “lack of ambition” not rated); confidence lowered from high to moderate (D and F rest on the same Eurostat accounts, including the imputed 2024 air-transport value); 116% labelled as a share of the rise in resident-unit emissions; 2024 values labelled as estimates; sub-claim C amber because of Ireland; land-transport figure dropped; consistency sentence added on emissions per person (+69.2%, CC-025). Pending right of reply (Nationalist Party).

Sources and archived copies

  1. Malta l-uniku Stat Membru tal-UE li żied l-intensità tal-emissjonijiet tiegħu mill-2013 ’l hawn, Partit Nazzjonalista, 2026-01-26. Original · Archived copy
    The claim. Press release in Maltese, signed by Eve Borg Bonello, Shadow Minister for Climate Change and Public Cleanliness; read in full 6 Oct 2026 (found through the site's press-release sitemap; HTTP 200 with a browser User-Agent). Page modified 24 Apr 2026 (its image, Eurostat's map, is filed under that month); text matches Newsbook's quotes of 26 Jan. Translation ours (literature/CC-114/primary-source.md).
  2. PN accuses government of climate 'apathy' as emissions intensity rises, Newsbook, 2026-01-26. Original · fetched and fingerprinted 2026-10-10; no public snapshot yet
    Locator. English quotes of the release (Newsbook's translation); the 17% and 34% are Newsbook's paraphrase. Read in full 6 Oct 2026; Internet Archive capture 13 Feb 2026.
  3. 2024 EU greenhouse gas emissions: -20% since 2013, Eurostat, 2026-01-23. Original · Archived copy
    The figures the release cites ("Eurostat's figures ... published in recent days"; identifying this news item is ours): "Only Malta (+17%) saw its emissions intensity increase since 2013"; EU -34%; source dataset env_ac_aeint_r2. Map data (20 Jan 2026) in data/cc-114/eurostat_map_jan2026.csv.
  4. 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables, Eurostat, 2025-12-18. Original · Archived copy
    News item read 6 Oct 2026 (text only): EU 25.2%; lowest Belgium 14.3%, Luxembourg 14.7%, Ireland 16.1%; Malta is not named, and the item gives no value for it. Transcribed in data/cc-114/eurostat_ren_news_dec2025.csv.
  5. Air emissions accounts (env_ac_aeint_r2, env_ac_ainah_r2, env_ac_aibrid_r2); env_air_gge; nama_10_gdp; nama_10_a64; nama_10_pe; nrg_ind_ren, Eurostat, retrieved 6 Oct 2026. Original · Archived copy
    Primary data with status flags; extract, queries and checks in data/cc-114/.

Right of reply

The body concerned has not yet been asked to reply. Its response will be published here, beside the verdict.

How this claim relates to the others: who made it, the themes it shares with other claims, and the patterns it shows. A connection is a reason to read two checks side by side. It does not make either one right or wrong. How connections are found.

Who made it

Partit Nazzjonalista (Nationalist Party)

Other claims by Partit Nazzjonalista (Nationalist Party) 7

Linked directly 6

Claims that share a theme with this one. A theme is a cause, a mechanism, a target or a way of presenting figures that the editors have found in several claims; its strength says how close the link is.

Selective-metric pattern Rhetorical pattern · Pattern, not causal

A favourable metric is cited while the regulator-relevant metric looks worse. Useful for tagging, not for implying a common cause.

2030 carbon target Shared target · Strong

The Climate Action Authority and the 2026 Labour manifesto (priority 18) both state a 40% cut in carbon emissions by 2030 against 2005, without saying whether it covers total or effort-sharing emissions.

Shared emissions figures Shared data · Strong

Finished checks that rest on the same Eurostat emissions figure, verified to agree by the fact-ledger build (sketch/fact-ledger): Malta's 2024 territorial total (CC-026, CC-031), road transport +39.4% since 2005 (CC-031, CC-109), air transport 444 to 4,730 kt (CC-026, CC-114).

Same pattern

Pattern tags name a recurring way a claim can mislead. They describe the statement, not the speaker.

Selective metric

A favourable metric is cited while the regulator-relevant metric looks worse.

Two steps away 11

Not linked to this claim directly, but linked to a claim that is. These are found by following the links, not chosen by the editors, so they are looser: they show where one theme meets another.

Three steps away 27

One step further again. At this distance a connection says more about how the themes fit together than about this claim.

Similar wording

Claims whose own words overlap with this one, with the words they share. Found by comparing the wording of the claims, not their verdicts; a lead to read them together, not a finding.

Timeline

What was said, what was published before and after it, and each step of this check, in date order. Statements and sources carry the date they were published. The steps of the check carry the date the research was done, from the check's research log. Other statements by the same body on the same topic show whether a position was repeated, changed or corrected.

  1. 2015

    1. 2015 Evidence published Carbon emission accounting in MRIO models: the territory vs. the residence principle (Usubiaga and Acosta-Fernández), Economic Systems Research 27(4):458-477

  2. 2020

    1. 2020 Evidence published A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II (Haberl et al.), Environmental Research Letters

  3. 2025

    1. 18 December 2025 Evidence published 25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables, Eurostat

  4. 2026

    1. 20 January 2026 Evidence published Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of gross value added, 2013-2024 (map), Eurostat
    2. 23 January 2026 Evidence published 2024 EU greenhouse gas emissions: -20% since 2013, Eurostat
    3. 26 January 2026 The statement Nationalist Party (PN) (this claim)
    4. 26 January 2026 Statement published Malta l-uniku Stat Membru tal-UE li żied l-intensità tal-emissjonijiet tiegħu mill-2013 ’l hawn, Partit Nazzjonalista
    5. 26 January 2026 Reported PN accuses government of climate 'apathy' as emissions intensity rises, Newsbook
    6. 11 February 2026 Evidence published Air emissions accounts: national reference metadata, Malta, National Statistics Office, Malta (via Eurostat)
    7. June 2026 Evidence published Greenhouse gas emission accounts (Statistics Explained), Eurostat
    8. 22 June 2026 Later statement by Partit Nazzjonalista (Nationalist Party) on Climate & Energy CC-126 PN: Labour promised a gas pipeline by 2026
    9. 15 September 2026 Evidence published Share of energy from renewable sources (nrg_ind_ren), Eurostat
    10. 5 October 2026 Added to the claims to check
    11. 6 October 2026 Check started Checked in the maintainer session of 6 Oct 2026. Newsbook article read; Eurostat news item of 23 Jan 2026 identified as the source of the figures (env_ac_aeint_r2).
    12. 6 October 2026 Exact wording found Primary wording found: PN press release in Maltese, signed by Shadow Minister Eve Borg Bonello, 26 Jan 2026 (pn.org.mt, located through the press-release sitemap; page modified 24 Apr 2026). Claim text restated from the release (our translation); Newsbook's English quotes match.
    13. 6 October 2026 Note Eurostat air emissions accounts (intensities, emissions by activity, bridging table), territorial inventory, GDP, GVA, population and renewables downloaded with flags; January 2026 map data extracted. Malta +14.3% (Jan +16.6%), only riser; air transport 0.30 to 4.73 Mt, all fuel bought abroad; without it -64.0%; territorial per euro of GDP -61.3%; electricity -56%; 2013-2023 -8.3%. NSO metadata (11 Feb 2026) and Eurostat Statistics Explained read; Usubiaga & Acosta-Fernandez (2015) and Haberl et al. (2020) verified in Crossref.
    14. 6 October 2026 Note Independent review, same day and before circulation: our counter-figures (without air transport, territorial inventory) tested from every base year 2008-2023 as strictly as the PN's (a fall from every base year, but -29.5% / -27.1% since 2016, close to the EU's; ranks now stated 'since 2013'); renewables link rated on the decomposition (air transport 116% of the net rise; zero electricity-sector emissions would leave the indicator 1.4% above 2013; renewable shares rose) with 'lack of ambition on several fronts' marked not rated; Ireland, Estonia and Finland given on both bases with Eurostat flags; sub-claim D rated like CC-026D (amber); Eurostat's news item of 18 Dec 2025 added for the renewables ranking; translation of sentence 6 corrected.
    15. 6 October 2026 Version 1.0: first issue First issue. Verdict Misleading (high confidence); pending right of reply (Nationalist Party).
    16. 6 October 2026 Version 1.1 1.1: corrections after the 6 Oct 2026 audit: F wording narrowed, confidence High to Moderate, estimates labelled, C reason stated, land-transport figure dropped. Verdict Misleading (moderate confidence); pending right of reply (Nationalist Party). Verdict in this version: Misleading, moderate confidence.
    17. 6 October 2026 Evidence reviewed
    18. 6 October 2026 Correction Audit corrections. Sub-claim F and the bound narrowed from 'no renewables policy could have removed the rise' / 'renewables cannot explain the rise' to 'more renewable electricity, on its own, could not have removed the rise' (the bound tests electricity-sector emissions, NACE D, only; zeroing D alone leaves 2024 at 329.8 g/EUR against 325.2 in 2013, +1.4%, checked in calc.py); F stays Contradicted and rates the 'direct result' link as applied to renewables, with 'lack of ambition' (E) not rated. Verdict stays Misleading; confidence lowered from High to Moderate because the deciding sub-claims D and F both rest on the same Eurostat air emissions accounts, including the imputed (flag i) 2024 air-transport value. The 116% is now labelled as the share of the rise in resident-unit emissions (+3.81 Mt), not of the intensity indicator; the 72% and the 4,730 kt air figure are labelled 2024 estimates (flag i); the flyer headline now reads 'since 2013 the rise is airline fuel (2024 estimate)'. The land-transport firms figure (0.05 to 0.09 Mt) was dropped. all corrections
    19. 6 October 2026 Clarification Sub-claim C stated to be amber because of Ireland (emissions rose while intensity fell), not because of the emissions-for-intensity label as such; intensity view added (air transport alone about 36 g/EUR in 2013, about 266 in 2024, estimate); consistency sentence added on emissions per person on the residence basis (+69.2%, 27th of 27) and why CC-025 and CC-114 differ (a contradicted causal link). Status unchanged: pending right of reply. all corrections
    20. 10 October 2026 Clarification data/cc-114/checks.csv row 39 called the bridging table's territory-principle line (AEMIS_TER: 2,835 to 2,198 kt, 2013 to 2024; derived from the air emissions accounts, 2024 a Eurostat estimate) the 'territorial inventory total'. It is not: the same table's inventory line (AEMIS_TER_LULUCF less LULUCF) gives 2,825.8 to 2,170.2 kt, as env_air_gge does; that row is now added at the end of the file. The report does not use either figure; findings, verdict and version unchanged. all corrections

  5. 2027

    1. 6 October 2027 Coming up: Evidence review due Each finished check is reviewed against new evidence within a year.

Every change to this claim's record is public: history of the record.

Download the report and flyer

Flyer for CC-114: PN: only EU state with rising emissions intensity