A net-zero Gozo by 2040

TL;DR

Before the general election of 30 May 2026 [7], the Nationalist Party promised “a clear and realistic plan” for Gozo to become a Net-Zero Island by 2040, with afforestation among the measures. News reports summarised it as net zero “through afforestation”. We tested whether the pledge has a baseline, a boundary and a pathway that would let anyone check it, and whether afforestation could do the job.

1. A plan to make a plan. The programme promises a plan but publishes no emissions baseline, no boundary (imported electricity, ferries, tourism) and no pathway to 2040.
2. There is no official inventory, but there is a baseline to build on. A 2023 study for the EU’s Clean energy for EU islands secretariat put Gozo’s energy-related CO₂ at 118,000–154,000 t a year in 2016–2020 [6]. Our population-based estimate is about 157,000 t.
3. Afforestation alone could not do it. Offsetting those emissions with new forest would need 4.9–6.3 times Gozo’s land area at a measured semi-arid rate (1.5–8.5 times across our wider range). The PN’s own text relies on cutting emissions first; the “through afforestation” version is a news summary.
4. Pledge label: not measurable (as of 5 October 2026). A pledge is not a statement of fact, so it is not false; as worded it cannot be shown to be achieved or missed.

1. Not measurable
2. Not yet due
3. On track
4. Off track
5. Met
6. Missed

IN THIS REPORT

1 The pledge and what we could verify

Our candidate record took the pledge from a MaltaToday summary [2]. We then found the PN’s own text [1], in Maltese. The translation is ours; the original wording is quoted so readers can check it. The text sets a 2040 date and lists afforestation as one measure among many, which the summary did not.

2 Method

Question. Does the pledge have a baseline, boundary and counting method that would allow it to be checked, and is net zero through afforestation physically plausible on Gozo?

Gozo’s emissions. No official greenhouse-gas inventory exists for Gozo. We used two estimates: (a) population (41,253 on 1 January 2025 [4]) times Malta’s national emissions per person (2.5, 3.81 and 5.0 t CO₂e; 3.81 t is Malta’s 2024 figure in Claim Check 003 [8]); and (b) the energy-related CO₂ estimated for 2016–2020 in the 2023 Energy Baseline Scenario for Gozo [6] (electricity, transport on the island, ferries to and from it, heating and cooling).

Sequestration. A measured rate from a semi-arid Aleppo pine afforestation on rendzina over limestone (about 3.6 t CO₂/ha/yr over 35 years [3]) and an optimistic 10 t. Gozo’s area is 67 km² [5]. Code: tools/cc-107-report/gozo_calc.py; results in data/cc-107/gozo_net_zero_arithmetic.csv.

Grades. The afforestation inventory is B; official statistics and the EU islands study are C; our own arithmetic is an order-of-magnitude estimate and is labelled as such.

3 What “net zero” would have to mean

The pledge rests on a term that is not defined for Gozo. Which emissions count? The 2023 baseline counts electricity drawn from Malta’s grid, transport on the island and the ferries [6]; transport alone is 60–70% of Gozo’s energy use there. A boundary that left out the ferries or imported electricity would make the target easier without any change on the island. And what counts as an offset: forests on Gozo, restoration at sea, or credits bought elsewhere? The programme does not say.

4 The arithmetic

Measured rate 3.62 t CO₂/ha/yr [3]; Gozo 67 km² [5]. Full results in data/cc-107/gozo_net_zero_arithmetic.csv.

What this means for the pledge

• “Net zero through afforestation”, as reported, is not possible on Gozo. But that is the news summary [2], not the PN’s text.
• The PN’s text relies on cutting emissions first (solar, electric vehicles, efficient buildings), with restoration and afforestation as part of the mix. Whether that reaches net zero by 2040 depends on numbers the programme does not give: a baseline, a boundary, and the role of offsets bought from elsewhere.
• Sequestration in young plantations is slow at first and can be reversed by drought or fire; the measured rate [3] is a 35-year average on a site with deep groundwater, not a guaranteed yield on Gozo’s thin soils.
• “The first island in the Mediterranean” was not tested.

5 Testing the pledge

6 Pledge label and requests for evidence

Why. The pledge promises a plan for an outcome whose starting point and boundary are not defined, and the widely reported version (afforestation) is physically impossible on Gozo’s land area. A pledge is not a statement of fact, so we do not call it false. We label it Not measurable: as worded, it cannot be shown to be achieved or missed. Pledges get one of six labels rather than a verdict (Appendix A).

What this label does not say. It does not say the goal is undesirable, or that anyone acted in bad faith. A checkable version would read: “Gozo’s emissions, on [boundary], were [X] t in [year]; by 2040 we will cut them to [Y] t and offset the rest by [means].”

Evidence we are asking for

• From the PN: a Gozo emissions inventory and its boundary (imported electricity, inter-island ferries, tourism).
• From the PN: the share of the 2040 target expected from cuts, from afforestation and from offsets elsewhere.
• From the PN: the area to be afforested on Gozo and the species and sequestration rate assumed.
• From the PN: whether the plan would start from the 2023 Energy Baseline Scenario for Gozo.

7 Limitations

• The population-based estimate uses national per-person figures; Gozo’s real profile (less industry, more tourism and ferry traffic) may differ. The 2.5–5.0 t range is our assumption.
• The 2023 baseline is a study prepared for the EU islands secretariat, not official statistics. It covers energy use only, attributes grid electricity with conversion factors, and reflects its authors’ views, not the Commission’s [6].
• The sequestration rate comes from one well-studied site in Israel; no Maltese measurements were found.
• The programme translation is ours.

References

1. [1] Partit Nazzjonalista (2026). Nifs Ġdid: Programm Elettorali, chapter Għawdex. https://pn.org.mt/en/nifsgdid/ghawdex/
2. [2] MaltaToday (May 2026). PN approves its electoral manifesto. https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/election-2026/141891/pn_approves_its_electoral_manifesto
3. [3] Grünzweig J.M., Gelfand I., Fried Y., Yakir D. (2007). Biogeochemical factors contributing to enhanced carbon storage following afforestation of a semi-arid shrubland. Biogeosciences 4(5):891–904. doi:10.5194/bg-4-891-2007. (Full text read; open access.) https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-4-891-2007
4. [4] Eurostat. Population on 1 January by NUTS 3 region (demo_r_pjanaggr3), MT002 Gozo and Comino, 2025. Retrieved 2 Oct 2026. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_r_pjanaggr3/default/table
5. [5] European Commission. Clean energy for EU islands: Malta (Gozo area 67 km²). https://clean-energy-islands.ec.europa.eu/countries/malta
6. [6] Vaz L., Rodrigues de Almeida J. (2023). Clean energy for EU islands: Energy Baseline Scenario for Gozo. Clean energy for EU islands secretariat, 25 January 2023. Table 16. (Read in full.) https://clean-energy-islands.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2025-06/REPORT_TechnicalAssistance_Gozo_20230223.pdf
7. [7] IFES ElectionGuide. Malta: Maltese House of Representatives 2026 General (held 30 May 2026; results source: Electoral Commission of Malta). Accessed 5 Oct 2026. https://electionguide.org/elections/id/5161/
8. [8] MiŻien. Analysis code and outputs: tools/cc-107-report/; data/cc-107/; Malta’s 2024 emissions per person from data/cc-003/checks.csv.

Appendix A: series standards and verdict scale

Every investigation in this series follows the same rules so that verdicts are comparable and challengeable.

Pledge labels

A pledge is a promise of future action, so it cannot be true or false when it is made. It gets one of these labels instead of a verdict, with the date of the evidence behind it.

Confidence

High: multiple independent lines of evidence agree. Moderate: evidence is relevant but incomplete or indirect. Low: evidence is thin, second-hand or conflicting.

Evidence grades

A experiment · B observational study with a control or gradient · C review, guidance or official statistics · D assertion or anecdote. Our own arithmetic is an order-of-magnitude estimate.

Standards

• Quote the speaker, not the headline, with outlet and date, and link the original where possible.
• Separate the claim from the evidence offered for it, and say who made which statement.
• Grade the evidence and show differing views side by side where the evidence is unsettled.
• State what we could not access or verify, and what would change the verdict either way.
• Ask for the missing evidence in specific, answerable requests.
• Offer a right of reply where a check finds a claim Not substantiated, Misleading or Contradicted (or a pledge Not measurable, Off track or Missed), before wider circulation, and append responses.
• Correct errors openly with a version number and change log.
• Whistle-blow only on evidence: a verdict of Misleading or Contradicted requires documents or data that can be shown, not inference.
• Check every side. Government, opposition, NGOs and developers are held to the same standard.

Appendix B: revision log