Updates to the checks of claims by Amphora Media: new claims, verdicts, report versions and replies. A record, not a score. https://leandergrech.github.io/Mizien/bodies/amphora-media/ 2026-10-06T12:00:00Z Miżien tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-06:note:audit-checks-no-change-to-the-report-1-doi-10-2908-ilc-mddw02-reference-2-resolves-through-doi-org-to-eurostats-databrowser-page-for-ilc-mddw02-and-datacite-lists-it-as-eurostats-dataset-pollution-grime-or-other-environmental-problems-crossref-has-no-record-as-expected-for-a-datacite-doi-kept-2-the-amphora-page-shows-12-may-2026-as-its-post-date-page-re-fetched-6-oct-2026-so-claim-date-and-sources-date-are-the-publication-date-history-dates-are-research-dates-3-the-wayback-capture-of-16-jun-2026-now-opens-and-carries-the-same-wording-and-date-4-the-explicit-status-note-was-removed-from-build-report-py-the-derived-status-wording-is-the-same-no-right-of-reply-needed-so-the-pdf-is-unchanged-and-the-version-stays-1-1 2026-10-06T12:00:00Z

Note: Audit checks, no change to the report. (1) doi:10.2908/ILC_MDDW02 (reference 2) resolves through doi.org to Eurostat's databrowser page for ilc_mddw02 and DataCite lists it as Eurostat's dataset 'Pollution, grime or other environmental problems' (Crossref has no record, as expected for a DataCite DOI); kept. (2) The Amphora page shows '12 May 2026' as its post date (page re-fetched 6 Oct 2026), so claim date and sources date are the publication date; history dates are research dates. (3) The Wayback capture of 16 Jun 2026 now opens and carries the same wording and date. (4) The explicit status_note was removed from build_report.py; the derived status wording is the same ('no right of reply needed'), so the PDF is unchanged and the version stays 1.1.. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-06:version-1-2:1-2-clarification-after-the-6-oct-2026-audit-verdict-unchanged 2026-10-06T12:00:00Z

Version 1.2: 1.2: clarification after the 6 Oct 2026 audit; verdict unchanged.. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-06:evidence-reviewed 2026-10-06T12:00:00Z

Evidence reviewed. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-06:clarification:section-5-q2-the-unsourced-sentence-perception-varies-with-expectations-reworded-as-general-context-tied-to-the-cited-study-3-audit-of-6-oct-2026 2026-10-06T12:00:00Z

Clarification: Section 5, Q2: the unsourced sentence 'Perception varies with expectations' reworded as general context tied to the cited study [3] (audit of 6 Oct 2026).. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-05:check-started:check-started-eurostat-ilc-mddw02-downloaded-through-the-dissemination-api-crossref-and-openalex-searched-for-studies-comparing-self-reported-and-measured-pollution-aguilera-et-al-2007-conference-abstract 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Check started: Check started. Eurostat ilc_mddw02 downloaded through the dissemination API; Crossref and OpenAlex searched for studies comparing self-reported and measured pollution (Aguilera et al. 2007, conference abstract).. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-05:exact-wording-found:verbatim-wording-found-on-the-amphora-page-eurostat-ilc-mddw02-downloaded-and-recomputed-malta-34-7-eu-27-12-2-first-of-27-first-in-17-of-17-survey-years 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Exact wording found: Verbatim wording found on the Amphora page. Eurostat ilc_mddw02 downloaded and recomputed: Malta 34.7%, EU-27 12.2%, first of 27, first in 17 of 17 survey years.. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-05:version-1-0-first-issue:first-issue-verdict-supported-high-confidence-no-right-of-reply-needed 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Version 1.0: first issue: First issue. Verdict Supported (high confidence); no right of reply needed.. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-05:note:independent-review-and-corrections-eurostat-ilc-mddw02-re-downloaded-with-eurostats-flags-2-019-rows-values-unchanged-matches-the-reviews-own-download-ilc-li02-downloaded-malta-at-risk-of-poverty-rate-16-6-in-2023-read-eurostats-statistics-explained-article-last-edited-14-aug-2025-its-news-release-of-1-sep-2025-and-its-eu-silc-methodology-note-on-the-environment-of-the-dwelling-regulation-eu-2019-1700-annex-iv-and-delegated-regulations-eu-2020-256-and-2022-29-read-via-the-eu-publications-office-cellar-the-pollution-item-hs180-is-in-the-three-yearly-module-labour-market-and-housing-collected-in-2023-and-2026-amphora-page-re-fetched-hashes-in-archive-manifest-csv-and-literature-cc-037-notes-md-it-names-no-source-and-links-none-a-wayback-capture-of-16-jun-2026-is-listed-but-could-not-be-opened-from-this-network 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Note: Independent review and corrections. Eurostat ilc_mddw02 re-downloaded with Eurostat's flags (2,019 rows, values unchanged; matches the review's own download); ilc_li02 downloaded (Malta at-risk-of-poverty rate 16.6% in 2023). Read Eurostat's Statistics Explained article (last edited 14 Aug 2025), its news release of 1 Sep 2025 and its EU-SILC methodology note on the environment of the dwelling; Regulation (EU) 2019/1700 (Annex IV) and Delegated Regulations (EU) 2020/256 and 2022/29 read via the EU Publications Office (Cellar): the pollution item (HS180) is in the three-yearly module 'Labour market and housing', collected in 2023 and 2026. Amphora page re-fetched (hashes in archive/manifest.csv and literature/CC-037/notes.md); it names no source and links none. A Wayback capture of 16 Jun 2026 is listed but could not be opened from this network.. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-05:version-1-1-corrections:corrections-1-amphora-names-no-source-and-links-none-the-cover-flyer-references-and-claim-record-no-longer-say-it-cites-eurostat-and-section-1-now-says-that-only-the-income-sentence-is-attributed-to-an-unnamed-report-likely-source-added-eurostat-s-statistics-explained-article-last-edited-14-aug-2025-and-news-release-1-sep-2025-5-6-2-sub-claim-d-re-rated-accurate-official-wording-reporting-exposure-to-pollution-is-eurostat-s-own-description-of-the-indicator-so-the-verdict-no-longer-treats-it-as-a-caveat-3-sub-claim-e-re-rated-largely-accurate-the-split-is-above-against-below-60-of-median-income-and-the-above-group-is-83-4-of-people-the-direction-reversed-in-6-of-17-years-eu-wide-it-runs-the-other-way-14-0-below-11-8-above-4-tl-dr-point-4-not-a-recent-deterioration-replaced-8-2-points-since-2017-the-highest-since-2014-37-4-5-the-2021-22-gap-explained-the-question-moved-to-a-three-yearly-eu-silc-module-collected-in-2023-and-2026-8-10-removed-from-the-requests-6-move-the-verdict-up-box-none-top-of-the-scale-a-eurostat-revision-or-a-survey-artefact-moved-to-down-7-unsourced-sentence-on-density-and-traffic-removed-the-indicator-is-now-defined-precisely-people-living-in-households-where-the-respondent-reports-the-problem-7-8-eurostat-flags-kept-eu-27-2010-2020-estimated-germany-2023-low-reliability-figure-1-no-longer-bridges-2021-22-figure-2-labels-to-one-decimal-table-note-kept-with-its-table-cover-status-draft-no-right-of-reply-needed-verdict-and-confidence-unchanged 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Version 1.1: corrections: Corrections: (1) Amphora names no source and links none; the cover, flyer, references and claim record no longer say it cites Eurostat, and section 1 now says that only the income sentence is attributed, to an unnamed “report”. Likely source added: Eurostat’s Statistics Explained article (last edited 14 Aug 2025) and news release (1 Sep 2025) [5, 6]. (2) Sub-claim D re-rated Accurate (official wording): “reporting exposure to pollution” is Eurostat’s own description of the indicator, so the verdict no longer treats it as a caveat. (3) Sub-claim E re-rated Largely accurate: the split is above against below 60% of median income, and the “above” group is 83.4% of people; the direction reversed in 6 of 17 years; EU-wide it runs the other way (14.0% below, 11.8% above). (4) TL;DR point 4 “Not a recent deterioration” replaced: +8.2 points since 2017, the highest since 2014 (37.4%). (5) The 2021–22 gap explained: the question moved to a three-yearly EU-SILC module collected in 2023 and 2026 [8–10]; removed from the requests. (6) “Move the verdict up” box: none (top of the scale); a Eurostat revision or a survey artefact moved to “down”. (7) Unsourced sentence on density and traffic removed; the indicator is now defined precisely (people living in households where the respondent reports the problem) [7]. (8) Eurostat flags kept (EU-27 2010–2020 estimated; Germany 2023 low reliability); Figure 1 no longer bridges 2021–22; Figure 2 labels to one decimal; table note kept with its table; cover status “draft · no right of reply needed”. Verdict and confidence unchanged.. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-019:2026-10-05:version-1-2:upgrade-1-amphora-s-published-change-polygons-8-measured-397-polygons-828-429-m-so-nearly-830-000-is-reproduced-and-the-headline-s-over-is-not-2-spatial-cross-check-with-the-independent-model-an-independent-measurement-finds-more-not-less-and-plausible-and-conservative-the-model-already-maps-68-of-amphora-s-area-as-built-up-in-2018-6-14-as-new-and-only-2-3-of-its-new-built-up-land-lies-inside-amphora-s-polygons-so-it-neither-confirms-nor-rules-out-the-figure-tl-dr-tiles-sections-2-8-flyer-3-the-2024-and-2025-maps-added-from-esri-s-service-identical-to-the-earlier-maps-for-2017-2023-net-totals-0-06-to-2-96-km-by-rule-4-sub-claim-a-supported-plausible-sub-claim-c-not-shown-needs-context-cropland-grass-96-of-the-area-with-a-known-2018-class-our-reading-of-the-basis-of-nearly-95-5-sub-claim-d-the-2006-2012-eea-figure-checked-with-the-corine-change-map-20-6-ha-93-7-ha-for-2012-2018-6-new-figure-1-amphora-s-polygons-over-the-model-s-new-built-up-land-replacing-the-map-of-new-built-up-pixels-figure-2-redrawn-with-four-rules-and-amphora-s-own-2018-classes-verdict-and-confidence-unchanged-maintainer-decision-5-oct-2026-imagery-spot-check-of-amphora-s-polygons-with-confidence-set-by-a-rule-fixed-beforehand-moderate-if-more-than-half-of-the-sampled-area-is-confirmed-low-otherwise-40-draws-by-systematic-sampling-proportional-to-area-seed-20261005-39-polygons-checked-by-eye-against-esri-world-imagery-wayback-11-12-from-2015-16-2018-2023-and-2025-72-5-of-the-sampled-area-confirmed-green-to-grey-95-interval-57-84-7-5-partial-2-5-already-grey-17-5-unclear-15-being-developed-by-september-2018-55-grey-by-may-2023-fields-59-of-the-land-before-64-with-orchards-confidence-moderate-new-subsection-and-table-rows-in-section-4-tl-dr-key-points-tiles-what-would-move-the-verdict-sections-2-5-to-8-and-the-flyer-updated-q1-plausible-unconfirmed-mostly-confirmed-q2-depends-on-definitions-overstated-sub-claim-a-plausible-largely-supported-sub-claim-c-needs-context-partly-supported-verdict-unchanged-maintainer-decision-5-oct-2026-verdict-changed-from-largely-supported-to-not-substantiated-moderate-read-as-worded-the-claim-dates-nearly-830-000-m-to-2018-2023-imagery-puts-about-456-000-m-330-000-574-000-grey-by-may-2023-and-about-600-000-m-by-2025-it-says-nearly-95-was-farmland-fields-were-59-64-with-orchards-and-scrub-or-garrigue-36-sub-claim-a-largely-supported-partly-supported-c-partly-supported-not-substantiated-q1-retitled-tl-dr-tiles-what-would-move-the-verdict-verdict-box-why-flyer-and-claim-yml-updated-a-right-of-reply-from-amphora-media-is-needed 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Version 1.2: Upgrade. (1) Amphora’s published change polygons [8] measured: 397 polygons, 828,429 m², so “nearly 830,000” is reproduced and the headline’s “over” is not. (2) Spatial cross-check with the independent model: “an independent measurement finds more, not less” and “plausible and conservative” → the model already maps 68% of Amphora’s area as built-up in 2018, 6–14% as new, and only 2–3% of its new built-up land lies inside Amphora’s polygons, so it neither confirms nor rules out the figure (TL;DR, tiles, sections 2–8, flyer). (3) The 2024 and 2025 maps added from Esri’s service (identical to the earlier maps for 2017–2023): net totals −0.06 to 2.96 km² by rule. (4) Sub-claim A “supported” → “plausible”; sub-claim C “not shown” → “needs context”: cropland + grass = 96% of the area with a known 2018 class (our reading of the basis of “nearly 95%”). (5) Sub-claim D: the 2006–2012 EEA figure checked with the CORINE change map (20.6 ha; 93.7 ha for 2012–2018). (6) New Figure 1 (Amphora’s polygons over the model’s new built-up land), replacing the map of new built-up pixels; Figure 2 redrawn with four rules and Amphora’s own 2018 classes. Verdict and confidence unchanged. Maintainer decision (5 Oct 2026): imagery spot-check of Amphora’s polygons, with confidence set by a rule fixed beforehand (moderate if more than half of the sampled area is confirmed, low otherwise). 40 draws by systematic sampling proportional to area (seed 20261005; 39 polygons) checked by eye against Esri World Imagery Wayback [11, 12] from 2015–16, 2018, 2023 and 2025: 72.5% of the sampled area confirmed green to grey (95% interval 57–84%), 7.5% partial, 2.5% already grey, 17.5% unclear (15% being developed by September 2018); 55% grey by May 2023; fields 59% of the land before (64% with orchards). Confidence: moderate. New subsection and table rows in section 4; TL;DR (key points, tiles, what would move the verdict), sections 2, 5 to 8 and the flyer updated; Q1 “plausible, unconfirmed” → “mostly confirmed”; Q2 “depends on definitions” → “overstated”; sub-claim A “plausible” → “largely supported”; sub-claim C “needs context” → “partly supported”. Verdict unchanged. Maintainer decision (5 Oct 2026): verdict changed from Largely supported to Not substantiated (moderate). Read as worded, the claim dates nearly 830,000 m² to 2018–2023; imagery puts about 456,000 m² (330,000–574,000) grey by May 2023 and about 600,000 m² by 2025. It says nearly 95% was farmland; fields were 59% (64% with orchards) and scrub or garrigue 36%. Sub-claim A “largely supported” → “partly supported”; C “partly supported” → “not substantiated”; Q1 retitled. TL;DR, tiles, what would move the verdict, verdict box, Why, flyer and claim.yml updated. A right of reply from Amphora Media is needed.. CC-019, Land & Trees; verdict so far: Not substantiated (draft, pending right of reply).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-019:2026-10-05:evidence-reviewed 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Evidence reviewed. CC-019, Land & Trees; verdict so far: Not substantiated (draft, pending right of reply).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-019:2026-10-05:version-1-1-corrections:corrections-1-periods-of-the-independent-estimates-2018-2023-land-first-mapped-as-built-in-2020-21-3-year-rule-and-2019-22-2-year-rule-which-is-what-the-rules-can-detect-tl-dr-tile-sections-3-4-5-and-6-limitations-figure-2-labels-and-caption-2-comino-about-0-3-of-comino-as-stated-amphora-says-roughly-a-quarter-830-000-m-is-0-24-of-the-3-5-km-often-quoted-and-0-30-of-the-2-8-km-openstreetmap-outline-3-simple-comparison-would-give-24-km-24-km-of-newly-built-up-pixels-18-9-km-net-now-saved-in-data-cc-019-io-lulc-change-csv-4-year-to-year-noise-more-than-15-km-twenty-times-the-change-3-to-27-km-the-largest-over-thirty-times-0-83-km-flyer-15-km-a-year-up-to-27-km-from-year-to-year-5-the-tl-dr-now-says-the-two-estimates-are-not-like-for-like-verdict-and-confidence-unchanged 2026-10-05T12:00:00Z

Version 1.1: corrections: Corrections. (1) Periods of the independent estimates: “2018–2023” → land first mapped as built in 2020–21 (3-year rule) and 2019–22 (2-year rule), which is what the rules can detect (TL;DR, tile, sections 3, 4, 5 and 6, limitations, Figure 2 labels and caption). (2) Comino: “about 0.3 of Comino, as stated” → Amphora says “roughly a quarter”; 830,000 m² is 0.24 of the 3.5 km² often quoted and 0.30 of the 2.8 km² OpenStreetMap outline. (3) Simple comparison: “would give 24 km²” → 24 km² of newly built-up pixels, 18.9 km² net (now saved in data/cc-019/io_lulc_change.csv). (4) Year-to-year noise: “more than 15 km², twenty times the change” → 3 to 27 km², the largest over thirty times 0.83 km²; flyer “15 km² a year” → “up to 27 km² from year to year”. (5) The TL;DR now says the two estimates are not like for like. Verdict and confidence unchanged.. CC-019, Land & Trees; verdict so far: Not substantiated (draft, pending right of reply).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-037:2026-10-04:added-to-the-claims-to-check 2026-10-04T12:00:00Z

Added to the claims to check. CC-037, Air; verdict so far: Supported (draft, no right of reply needed).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-019:2026-10-04:version-1-0-first-issue:first-issue-right-of-reply-to-amphora-media-not-yet-sent 2026-10-04T12:00:00Z

Version 1.0: first issue: First issue. Right of reply to Amphora Media not yet sent.. CC-019, Land & Trees; verdict so far: Not substantiated (draft, pending right of reply).

tag:leandergrech.github.io,2026:mizien:CC-019:2026-10-03:added-to-the-claims-to-check 2026-10-03T12:00:00Z

Added to the claims to check. CC-019, Land & Trees; verdict so far: Not substantiated (draft, pending right of reply).